Research Project

Chicago-Area Sprawl Revisited: The Role of Demographics, Prosperity and Homeownership with a Note on Sustainability

The purpose of this report is to present information and stimulate discussion by focusing on the period since 2000 to assess where growth is occurring in the Chicago area, as well as the scale of the changing dynamics in urban growth. Specifically, we will re-examine our proposition that while sprawl is facilitated by the transportation system, the level of prosperity is a major factor in the degree and pace of sprawl.

Principal Investigator
Sööt, Siim
Research Area(s)
Data Development
Mobility
Co-Investigators
Brendan Dodge-Hayakawa
Funding Source
Metropolitan Transportation Support Initiative (METSI)

Abstract

Population growth in the Chicago area was rather modest from 1970 to 1990 but the increase in the amount of land used for urban purposes was considerable, approximately four percent versus thirty-five percent respectively.  This and a variety of other concerns contributed to public discourse on urban sprawl, future growth patterns, and the livability of the region. In subsequent decades, both economic and demographic conditions have changed.  Thus, it is time to revisit the circumstances that contribute to sprawl by tracking the recent rates of sprawl and its implication for transportation demand. Our previous work (Sen et al., 1998 and Sööt et al., 2001) focused on two vital points. First, there have been a series of sociodemographic and economic trends that have contributed to large increases in land consumption that now have diminishing effects. Today, population growth and land consumption increases are largely equivalent.  For approximately a century, declining household sizes created a disproportionate number of households in contrast to overall population growth driving the demand for housing units. Now household sizes have effectively stopped declining, thereby slowing the demand for housing.  Growing home ownership rates have also been closely related to urban sprawl, but even before the economic downturn, home ownership rates began to stabilize and decline. Second, there is a relationship between urban sprawl and prosperity.  During periods of economic expansion, rising incomes contribute to urban sprawl.  We experienced that in the 1990 and the early 2000s. Since the middle of the first decade in this millennium, the economy has weakened. We conjecture that declining home ownership rates, brought upon by the recession, have had a substantial effect regarding urban sprawl rates, slowing the outward movement of the population. Download the "Chicago-Area Sprawl Revisited: The Role of Demographics, Prosperity and Homeownership with a Note on Sustainability" report.